US election 2020 polls: Taa ló ń léwájú- Trump tàbí Biden?

Aworan ori Biden ati Trump to kọju si ara wọn
    • Author, The Visual and Data Journalism Team
    • Role, BBC News

Awọn oludibo Amẹrika yoo kopa ninu idibo aarẹ lọjọ kẹta oṣu Kọkanla lati yan ẹni ti yoo ṣakoso eto ilẹ naa fọdun mẹrin mii.

Aarẹ Trump ti ẹgbẹ Republican n koju atako lọdọ Joe Biden to ṣe igbakeji Barack Obama.

Odu ni Biden kii ṣe aimọ foloko lagbo oṣelu Amẹrika to si wa ninu ẹgbẹ Democrat.

Bi ọjọ naa ṣe n sunmọ, awọn ileeṣẹ to n ko ero awọn oludibo jọ nipa ẹni ti wọn yan laayo ko ni dawọ iṣẹ duro.

Nileeṣẹ wa nibi, a o maa fọkan tẹle awọn akojọpọ ero oludibo yi lati le mọ ibi ti ọrọ naa yoo pada ja si.

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Bawọ lawọn oludije yi ṣe n rọwọ mu si jakejado Amẹrika?

Akojọpọ ero awọn oludibo lorileede Amẹrika jẹ ọna kan gbogi lati fi mọ bi awọn oludibo ba ti ṣe gba ti oludje kọọkan si.

Fun apẹrẹ lọdun 2016, Hilary Clinton lo le waju ninu akojọ ero oludibo to si fi ibo to le ni miliọnu mẹta ju Trump lọ ṣugbọn o pada fidirẹmi naa ni.

Idi ni pe ilana electoral college ti Amẹrika n lo ko tumọ si pe bi eeyan ba ni ibo to pọju lọ yoo jawe olubori. Bi a ba fi koko pataki yii sọkan yoo jẹ ki a mọ bi nkan yoo ṣe lọ ninu idbo tọdun yii.

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Ta lo n lewaju ninu eto idibo orilẹede

Ẹgbẹ oṣelu Democrats

Biden

52%

Ẹgbẹ oṣelu Republicans

Trump

44%

Erongba oludibo lori ibo ẹni kọọkan

Ọjọ
Biden
Trump
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
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Nov 01 52 44
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Oct 31 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
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Oct 30 52 43
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Aug 10 50 41
Aug 09 49 41
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Aug 04 50 42
Aug 03 50 42
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Aug 01 50 42
Jul 31 50 42
Jul 30 50 42
Jul 29 49 41
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Jul 11 49 40
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Jun 03 49 42
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Jun 02 48 41
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Jun 01 48 42
May 31 48 42
May 30 48 43
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May 27 48 42
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May 24 48 42
May 23 48 43
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May 19 48 43
May 19 48 43
May 18 49 44
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May 16 49 44
May 15 49 44
May 14 49 43
May 14 49 43
May 13 48 43
May 12 47 43
May 11 48 43
May 10 48 43
May 09 47 42
May 08 48 42
May 07 48 42
May 06 48 42
May 05 48 42
May 04 48 42
May 03 47 42
May 02 48 42
May 01 48 42
Apr 30 48 42
Apr 29 48 42
Apr 28 48 42
Apr 28 48 42
Apr 27 49 42
Apr 26 49 42
Apr 25 49 42
Apr 24 48 42
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Apr 15 48 42
Apr 14 48 42
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Apr 10 48 42
Apr 09 48 42
Apr 08 48 42
Apr 07 48 42
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Apr 05 48 43
Apr 04 48 43
Apr 03 48 43
Apr 02 48 43
Apr 01 49 44
Mar 31 49 45
Mar 30 49 45
Mar 29 49 45
Mar 28 49 45
Mar 27 49 45
Mar 26 49 45
Mar 25 49 44
Mar 24 49 43
Mar 24 49 43
Mar 23 50 44
Mar 22 50 44
Mar 21 52 42
Mar 20 52 43
Mar 19 52 43
Mar 18 52 42
Mar 17 52 42
Mar 16 52 43
Mar 15 52 43
Mar 14 52 43
Mar 13 52 43
Mar 12 52 43
Mar 11 51 43
Mar 10 50 43
Mar 09 51 42
Mar 08 51 42
Mar 07 50 43
Mar 06 49 45
Mar 05 49 45
Mar 04 49 45
Mar 03 49 45
Mar 02 49 45
Mar 01 50 45
Feb 29 50 45
Feb 28 50 45
Feb 27 50 44
Feb 26 50 45
Feb 25 50 45
Feb 24 50 45
Feb 23 50 45
Feb 22 50 45
Feb 21 50 44
Feb 20 50 44
Feb 19 50 44
Feb 18 50 44
Feb 17 51 44
Feb 17 51 44
Feb 16 50 44
Feb 15 50 43
Feb 14 50 43
Feb 13 50 43
Feb 12 50 46
Feb 11 50 44
Feb 10 50 44
Feb 09 50 44
Feb 08 49 44
Feb 07 49 44
Feb 06 49 44
Feb 05 50 46
Feb 04 50 45
Feb 03 50 45
Feb 02 50 45
Feb 01 50 44
Jan 31 50 44
Jan 30 50 44
Jan 29 50 44
Jan 28 50 44
Jan 27 50 45
Jan 26 50 45
Jan 25 50 45
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Jan 23 50 46
Jan 23 50 46
Jan 22 50 44
Jan 21 51 45
Jan 20 51 45
Jan 19 51 45
Jan 18 48 46
Jan 17 48 46
Jan 16 48 46
Jan 15 48 46
Jan 14 48 46
Jan 13 48 46
Jan 12 48 46
Jan 11 48 46

30 days until Ọjọ idibo

Eto ibo iwadii ti BBC yoo maa wo awọn idibo iwadii ni orilẹede kọọkan laarin ọjọ mẹrinla, eleyi ti yoo wa fi ṣe agbekalẹ odinwọn aarin gbogbo rẹ lapapọ

Presentational white space

Lọwọlọwọ, o ti le ni ọdun kan bayi ti Joe Biden ti n lewaju ninu akojọ ero awọn oludibo jakejado Amẹrika .

Lẹnu ọsẹ meloo kan sẹyin, niṣe ni o wa laarin ida aadọta akojọ ero yii to si fi ami ayo mẹwa le waju lawọn asiko kan. Ni afiwe idibo ọdun 2016, ero oludibo ko ṣafihan iyatọ to to eleyi taa n ri nisinsiyi.

Laarin Trump ati Clinton nigba naa, ami ayo diẹ ni wọn fi ju ara wọn lọ. Ko dabi ti eleyi ti Biden ja Trump kalẹ daada.

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Ipinlẹ wo ni yoo sọ ibi ti ọpa ẹbiti ibo yoo re si ??

Hilary Clinton to fun wa larikọgbọn pe kii ṣe iye ibo to ba ri ni yoo ṣe atọna boya o ma jawe olubori.

Kii saba si iyatọ ninu bi pupọ awọn ipinlẹ to wa l'Amẹrika ṣe n dibo.

O si lawọn ibi ti awọn oludije yoo ti gbegba oroke koda awọn ipinlẹ kan jẹ oju ina lasiko idibo yi.

Presentational white space

Ninu ilana electoral College taa n wi yi, idibo a maa waye labẹ akori ipinlẹ kọọkan dipo ki wọn ka iye eeyan to dibo ni gbogboogbo.

Ipinlẹ kọọkan ni aye ti wọn fi kalẹ labẹ Electoral College yi tapapọ rẹ si jẹ ibo ejidinlogojilenieedegbeta.

Eni to ba fẹ pegede gbọdọ ni ibo ọtalenigbalemẹwaa ki o to le di aarẹ.

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Ta lo n lewaju lawọn ipinlẹ oju ina?

Lọwọlọwọ bayi, Joe Biden lo n lewaju ṣugbọn obiri laye, o le yi pada ki o fi sọdọ Trump.

Akojọ ero awọn oludibo(poll) n tọka si pe ni ipinlẹ bi Michigan, Pennsylvania ati Wisconsin, oun lo n lewaju.

Awọn eto idibo lagbegbe to gbona janajan

Sun atẹ wa silẹ tabi oke lati ri ẹkunrẹrẹ akọsilẹ
Tẹ ibi yii ki o le ṣe tabili lati isalẹ si oke tabi lati oke si isalẹ ninu atẹ naa
Arizona 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 3.6%
Florida 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 1.2%
Georgia 47.2% 48.2% Trump + 5.2%
Iowa 45.6% 47.6% Trump + 9.5%
Michigan 50.0% 45.8% Trump + 0.2%
Minnesota 48.0% 43.7% Clinton + 1.5%
Nevada 48.7% 46.3% Clinton + 2.4%
New Hampshire 53.4% 42.4% Clinton + 0.4%
North Carolina 47.6% 47.8% Trump + 3.7%
Ohio 46.3% 47.3% Trump + 8.2%
Pennsylvania 48.7% 47.5% Trump + 0.7%
Texas 46.5% 47.8% Trump + 9.1%
Virginia 51.7% 40.3% Clinton + 5.4%
Wisconsin 51.0% 44.3% Trump + 0.8%

Jọwọ ṣe atunṣe ilana ikansi ayelujara rẹ lati ri ẹkunrẹrẹ rẹ

Orisun: US Census Iye akọsilẹ to waye gbẹyin 03/11

Presentational white space

Lọdun 2016, Trump fi 1% ja Clinton lawọn ipinlẹ wọn yi.

Amọ ṣa ohun to yẹ ki Biden gbajumọ ni bi yoo ti ṣe rọwọ mu lawọn ipinlẹ bi Iowa Ohio ati Texas nitori nkan bi 8-10% ni Trump fi ja alatako rẹ nibẹ ninu ibo to kọja

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Ṣe ajakalẹ coronavirus ti koba ipo Trump lori akasọ?

Lati ibẹrẹ ọdun yi to ti gbori afẹfẹ kan, ọrọ ajakalẹ Covid-19 ati bi aarẹ Trump ti ṣe koju rẹ jẹ nkan tawọn eeyan n ran lẹnu.

Ni nkan bi aarin oṣu kẹta ọdun yi, awọn eeyan fi ifẹ han si igbesẹ rẹ to gbe nipa pipese owo iranwọ aadọta biliọnu dọla fawọn ipinlẹ Amẹrika lati koju ajakalẹ yi.

Lasiko taa n sọ yi o le ni ida marun le laadọta oludibo ti wọn fi ero han pe awọn n ṣe tiẹ ninu akojọ 'poll' ti ileeṣẹ Ipsos gbe jade.

Ipa ajakalẹ arun Coronavirus lori akojọ ero oludibo
Presentational white space

Ṣugbọn ko pẹ ti atilẹyin awọn ọmọ ẹgbẹ Democrat fi poora amọ awọn ti Republican ko jawe ninu atilẹyin wọn fun un.

Loṣu to kọja awọn alatilẹyin rẹ ninu ẹgbẹ Republican kọọkan ti n fi han pe awọn ko fi taratara gba tiẹ mọ.

Ọrọ yi ko ṣẹyin igbesẹ to n gbe lati koju Covid-19 ati bi ọwọja arun naa ṣe n peleke si.

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Njẹ a le fọkan tọ akojọ ero ara ilu taa pe ni 'poll' yi?

Eeyan le sọ wipe ka fọwọ rọ akojọ ero ara ilu yi nitori bi o ti ṣe gbe gbagi pẹlu Hilary Clinton lọdun 2016.

Ninu awọn to ni ka maa gbaa gbọ ni aarẹ Trump wa.

Pupọ awọn poll to waye lọdun 2016 lo ni Hilary Clinton lo ṣeeṣe ki o jawe olubori ṣugbọn eyi ko tunmọ si pe wọn gbe gbagi patapata.

Ka sọ ootọ, awọn akojọ ero ara ilu kọọkan laahẹ pẹlu bi wọn ko ti ṣe ṣẹkunrẹrẹ akojọ ero ara ilu lawọn aaye kọọkan paapa awọn ti ko kẹkọ gboye fasiti.

Ohun teyi tunmọ si ni pe wọn ko tete ṣafihan biu aarẹ Trump ṣe mu oke laarin awọn ti ko kawe pupọ titi ti ọjọ fi lọ mọ awọn alatako rẹ lọwọ.

Pupọ awọn to n ko ero oludibo jọ ti ṣe atunṣe aṣiṣe yi bayi.

Amọ ṣa lọdun yi,ko yi daju ibi ti ọpa ẹbiti yoo re si nitori ajakalẹ Covid-19 to n da ọpọ eto ru.

Nitorinaa, a ko ti le sọ ni pato pe akojọ ero oludibo kankan le ṣe atọhan to daju ibi ti idibo ọdun yi yoo ja si.

Ọjọ ibo ṣi jina, oju ree iran re lọrọ to wa nilẹ yi.