Monthly Outlook

Mostly mild and changeable but drier in the east and south than the west and north, before more widespread wetter conditions throughout mid-March. Only temporary chillier spells are expected between weather systems.

Later in March there is a slight risk that colder conditions could develop.

Changeable and mainly mild

The rest of the week should have alternating high pressure ridges and weakening frontal systems from the west. On Wednesday most of England and Wales will have some warm sunshine developing after early patches of fog and low cloud. Northern Ireland and western Scotland will be cloudy and breezy with showery rain at times while eastern Scotland stays mostly dry but rather cloudy.

A front slowly edging in from the Atlantic will bring a more organised band of rain to Northern Ireland and Scotland, later spreading into Wales and the north and west of England. The south and east should stay dry and bright.

Much of England and Wales will be rather cloudy on Friday and Saturday. The front will weaken as it tries to move south-eastwards on Friday and then northwards again on Saturday, with rain becoming very patchy.

Scotland and Northern Ireland should be dry with some sunshine but cloudier conditions could return on Sunday with some showery rain possible. Much of England and Wales should be dry with variable cloud. Any overnight cloud clearances might lead to chances of fog patches.

Mostly mild but wetter at times

Next week it looks like Atlantic systems will become more active. These will bring occasional rain and brisk winds, although aimed more at northern and western areas. Frontal systems will perhaps sometimes struggle to cross the southern and eastern UK as European high pressure continues to exert an influence. As a result, the south and east could have near to below-average precipitation amounts, while northern and western regions are wetter than normal, especially Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

With the expected pattern often drawing in south-east to south-westerly flows, mild conditions are expected overall, with temperatures on average above what is expected in March. However, in between frontal systems there will be transient high pressure ridges which could bring the chance of one or two chilly and perhaps frosty or foggy nights.

Milder than average overall, perhaps colder later

The second half of March will most likely start off with a similar pattern, with high pressure across the European continent while low pressure systems steer across the eastern North Atlantic. They will occasionally bring frontal systems across the UK.

Initially these could mostly impact northern and western regions, with somewhat drier conditions for the southern UK, but rainfall could become more widespread. Temperatures may come down a little overall but should still be mostly near to a little above average overall.

However, as we have seen in previous outlooks, there could be a chance of high pressure building at higher latitudes towards the end of the month. This might bring a risk of some colder air filtering southwards by the start of April, although that remains very uncertain at the moment.

In Friday's update we will be able to look into the first week of April and see if there is any clearer sign of a possible colder turn.