Is England on course for fifth Champions League spot?

General view inside the stadium of the official adidas match day ball prior to a Champions League gameImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

The Premier League is in a dominant position for the extra places in the Champions League and Europa League

By
Football issues correspondent

With the knockout phase of all three European competitions having started, how is the race for the extra places in the Champions League shaping up?

The two nations which perform best across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League this season will be handed European Performance Spots (EPS) by Uefa.

That means fifth place in the Premier League table could go from being a Europa League place to a ticket into the Champions League - Newcastle benefited this way last season.

But will an English club get that reward again?

How do European Performance Spots work?

To work out who are the successful nations, Uefa takes into consideration the overall performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

It creates an average by taking the total coefficient score and dividing it by the number of clubs each league has in European competition.

So let's say the Premier League has a total score of 185. Divide that by nine clubs and you get an average of 20.56.

The top two leagues in the table get an extra place in the Champions League.

Each win - regardless of the competition - is worth two coefficient points, with a draw worth one.

The key differential is in bonus points awarded based on clubs' finishing positions in the league phase and knockout rounds, as these are much higher in the Champions League.

By way of an example, the teams that finish 25th-36th in the Champions League got six bonus points - even though they were eliminated.

Yet the team who finished top of the Conference League table - Strasbourg - received just four points.

Bonus points for progressing through the knockout rounds are also weighted. In the Champions League it is 1.5, Europa League 1, and Conference League 0.5.

This means it is almost certain that one of the top European leagues will get the extra places each season because they have more clubs in the Champions League.

What does the table look like?

ENGLAND

England is the only country to still have all teams active - there are nine of them into the last 16 across the three competitions.

It will be very hard for England to throw it away from this position.

But nothing should be completely taken for granted, as England seemed destined to get an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to suffer a terrible set of results in the quarter-finals.

As a picture of how far England is ahead, German clubs are effectively 17 wins behind, for Spanish sides it is 20 wins. Then for the Italian teams it is 18 victories.

GERMANY

The Bundesliga is well placed to take an EPS slot alongside England with five of its seven teams active.

Germany's chances have been aided by its four teams in the Champions League and Europa League being placed in opposite sides of the brackets. It means they cannot meet until the final.

SPAIN

With eight teams in Europe, Spain needed to have a strong campaign.

Chances were severely damaged by Villarreal and Athletic Club's Champions League elimination.

While Spain has six teams still active going into the last 16, as it had eight teams to start with, each win is worth less to the coefficient than those of their rivals for second place.

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona could meet in the Champions League quarter-finals, plus Celta Vigo and Real Betis in the Europa League semis. This could affect their chances.

With three England v Spain fixtures in the Champions League last 16, La Liga is going to have to do it the hard way.

ITALY

Serie A has lost three of its seven teams and now only has a slim chance of making the top two.

Bologna and Roma will face each other in the Europa League last 16, so another team will go out.

So it is looking like a three-horse race for the second spot with only Atalanta left in the Champions League.

PORTUGAL

Portugal's chances of making the top two were effectively over when Santa Clara were knocked out of the Conference League in the qualifying rounds.

It still has three teams active but will not trouble the top two.

POLAND

It will come as a surprise to many to find Poland so high up in the table, and that it was in the top two for a while. But Poland does not have a realistic chance.

All four of the country's teams have been playing in the Conference League, while over a third of its points were picked up in the qualifying rounds.

Its final two teams are in the same half of the bracket.

FRANCE

It has been a disappointing season for Ligue 1 teams, starting with Nice's failure to make it through Champions League qualifying.

It did not got much better from there for Nice, as they were then eliminated from the Europa League.

France does have four teams still active but seems unlikely to bridge the gap.

GREECE

Greece has only two teams left in Europe so will not be able to mount a challenge.

No other country has a mathematical chance of the top two.

What are the key future dates?

Last season, the Premier League's extra place in the Champions League was confirmed on 8 April.

Such has been the high level of English clubs' performance in the top competition this season that it could come earlier this time.

Here are some key dates for the diary:

17-19 March: Second-leg ties for the round of 16 take place in each competition, with another 24 teams knocked out.

14-16 April: Quarter-final ties are completed. It is possible that the extra places will be confirmed.

5-7 May: Semi-final second legs take place, with the finals being held at the end of the month.

How does the Premier League race for Champions League places look?

Premier League leaders Arsenal (61 points) are five points ahead of Manchester City (56) with Aston Villa (51) in third.

Manchester United (48) are currently fourth and, right now, the extra place in the Champions League would go to fifth-placed Chelsea (45). Liverpool are in sixth place (45).

This article is the latest from BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team.